1505 - Blindboxification, with Josh Luber, Part 1

Dr. Beckett hosts a conversation with Josh Luber about Luber’s long “BlindBoxification” white paper (136 pages) and the broader trend of blind-box style products in sports cards and beyond. Luber discusses the paper as a conversation-starter and potentially a living document, with ideas for a V2, a book-form revision, or a limited podcast series; he also shares research learnings from other industries, including examples like brands attempting blind boxes and the problems it created. They reference Blaise Pascal’s quote about the pleasure of the hunt and ties it to collecting and uncertainty, then challenges and expands Luber’s “hits vs filler” framework into four categories: truly collectible cards (TCCs) not meant to be sold, hits meant to be sold as currency, filler with attributes, and low-value “zeroes,” with discussion of when grading matters across those categories. They debate older collectors and set-building, with Beckett pushing back on calling it an “impossible dream” for vintage set completion while agreeing modern products like 2023 Prizm make traditional set collecting impossible and may accelerate the end of sets. They also explore digital repacks and expected value, transparency, buybacks, and why repack models are spreading because anyone can build them without owning rights. Beckett raises concerns that if repack buyback transactions become tracked by pricing tools, repeated circulation could create a downward pricing spiral, and the episode ends with both acknowledging how buyback percentages could lead to a “race to the bottom.” 00:50 Why Blindboxification Matters 01:38 A Living Document and V2 Plans 03:31 Pascal and the Thrill of the Hunt 05:05 Hits, Filler, and Four Categories 09:00 Set Building and Grumpy Collectors 11:26 Digital Repacks and Expected Value 13:09 Hybrid Repacks and Industry Moves 14:12 Transparency and the Race Down